Trade and development report update April 2023: global trends and prospects

According to most recent data, the world economy grew by 3.1 per cent in 2022. To many, the rebound suggested that a soft landing was possible in 2023, and that the key problems of the year 2022 rising prices, supply- chain disruptions and recession risks have been addressed. As a result the very first months of 2023 were viewed with optimism by decision-makers, as it appeared that the anti-inflationary stance of the central banks had set a path to price stabilization without causing a major disruption to growth. The report cautioned against such optimism because it was based on short term dynamics. Long-term issues which had emerged after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-09 and gained greater visibility during the pandemic- weak investment, slow productivity growth, supply chain vulnerabilities, high levels of indebtedness remain in place. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to impact international markets for energy, food and commodities. Moreover, inflation is proving a stubborn adversary due to persistent supply-side factors and excessive markups by large corporations, particularly in food and energy markets. With global growth decelerating during the fourth quarter of 2022, the world economy has begun 2023 in a more fragile state than the optimistic accounts were suggesting. With the conflict in Ukraine continuing into 2023, more financial, investment and strategic decisions are clouded by geopolitical uncertainty and risks of economic insecurity. The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX in November 2022 and a string of bank failures in Europe and United States in March 2023, raise the spectre of financial contagion in an already slowing economy.