Decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia

This paper provides a comparison of modelling approaches, quantitative drivers, and results from the IEA and IEEJ pathways highlighting areas of agreement, as well as identifying and explaining differences, and thereby to derive implications. The IEA pathway used in the comparison is the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) from the World Energy Outlook 2022 and the Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia. The IEEJ pathway is the net zero CO2 emissions in 2050 or 2060 case (CN2050/2060) from the decarbonisation of ASEAN Energy System: optimum technology selection model analysis up to 2060 study. The report provides long-term decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia and Indonesia. This report provides a comparison of modelling approaches, quantitative drivers, and results from the IEA. The report provides long-term decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia and Indonesia. This report provides a comparison of modelling approaches, quantitative drivers, and results from the IEA. The IEA and IEEJ apply unique energy modelling frameworks, differ in their respective scenarios, including the policy settings by country, which can and do lead to the development of different pathways. The two decarbonisation pathways compared in this paper also reflect uncertainties around the pace of technology development, commercialisation and cost, as well as the prevailing fossil fuel prices.
These differences are important considerations for the comparisons. The IEA APS and IEEJ CN2050/2060 describe two possible decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia and Indonesia. Each represent a path, but not necessarily the pathway, as there are many uncertainties to consider and achieving net zero goals will involve countless decisions by people in the region and around the world. Both analyses aim to provide information to policy makers in the region and beyond on potential ways to tackle the overall challenge to reduce CO2 emissions and fulfilling country-level ambitions to reach net zero emissions in the long term.