Comparing the future demand for, supply of, and life-cycle emissions from bio, synthetic, and fossil LNG marine fuels in the European Union

The idea that liquefied natural gas (LNG) can help mitigate the climate impacts of the maritime shipping sector rests on the assumptions that ships can switch to bio and e-LNG (“renewable” LNG) in the future and that switching would result in low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For this to happen, there must be enough renewable LNG to meet future demand and using it must result in a substantial reduction in GHG emissions on a life-cycle basis compared to fossil LNG.
Understanding whether these assumptions are realistic is important for policymakers, including in the European Union, which has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (that is equivalent to a 41% reduction from 2019 levels). This report, which focuses on ships trading with the European Union, predicts a tripling of demand for LNG as marine fuel between 2019 and 2030, based on trends in fuel consumption. It also estimates that renewable LNG would cost seven times more than fossil LNG in 2030 and, therefore, subsidies or other policies would be needed to encourage its use.