ITF North and Central Asia transport outlook: case-specific policy analysis

This report provides recommendations for transport policy makers to help them align economic development and growth with the decarbonization commitments of North and Central Asian countries under the Paris Climate Agreement. The policy insights are based on three scenarios for future transport demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in North and Central Asia to 2050. The baseline scenario (Recover) assumes that government policies return to business as usual after the COVID-19 pandemic. The other two scenarios (Reshape, Reshape+) assume governments adopt more ambitious polices. Under Reshape+, governments leverage the impacts of the pandemic recovery measure for transport decarbonisation. The scenarios are a regional drill-down of the forward-looking policy scenarios for global transport activity used in the ITF Transport Outlook project. The study recommends improve connectivity without increasing carbon intensity; target regional linkages and sustainable growth in connectivity strategies; complement connectivity improvements with initiatives to decarbonise fuel production and energy sources; prioritise service improvements and land-use development that encourages public-transport use; and ensure urban mobility is affordable in North and Central Asia's largest cities.