Global energy outlook 2020: energy transition or energy addition?- with commentary on implications of the COVID-19 pandemic

Global energy consumption has grown rapidly over the past century, driven by an
expanding population and increasing prosperity. Demand has risen for virtually all
sources—coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewables. These “additions” to
the global energy system reflect broadly positive trends of higher living standards,
decreasing global poverty, and longer livelihoods. At the same time, rising fossil fuel
consumption is the leading cause of global climate change and creates other major
environmental challenges. To address these challenges, the global energy system
will need to undergo a clean energy transition, whereby sources of energy that emit
greenhouse gases are replaced by increasingly cleaner sources. In this annual report,
we review and compare—on an apples-to-apples basis—recent long-term projections
from some of the world’s leading energy institutions. These projections suggest that
the world may be on the cusp of its first true energy transition, but also that more
ambitious public policies and technological innovations are needed to satisfy the
energy demands of the world’s growing population while also achieving long-term
environmental goals. As the projections presented here were all generated well before
the onset of COVID-19, they do not reflect the unprecedented global changes that have
occurred in recent months. However, throughout the paper, we have added discussion
boxes to address how COVID-19 might affect the projections presented, particularly in
the short run.